A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
